ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team SMGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Rubick
Poloson · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 11 games
Tinysignature
Boomy · 10 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
Mirana
AhFu · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 699 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 929 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 412 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1212 bans
Clockwerk
500 picks · 386 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:21
beastcoast 42%Team SMG 58%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:06.
Game 2prediction correct18:34
beastcoast 42%Team SMG 58%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 58%
Accuracy by game2 of 2