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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 46 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fly · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 699 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 929 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 412 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 410 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1212 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 386 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:58
Team Spirit 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
52% · 169 games54% · 115 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLarl
48% · 120 games54% · 65 games
SvenArteezy
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
45% · 61 game47% · 195 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
50% · 24 games43% · 48 games
TechiesCr1t-
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
53% · 208 games51% · 159 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed33:21
Team Spirit 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYatoro
55% · 72 games49% · 29 games
Phantom AssassinArteezy
Phantom Assassin
Riki
RikiLarl
49% · 72 games55% · 100 games
LeshracAbed
Leshrac
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
42% · 22 games44% · 43 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Chen
ChenMiposhka
52% · 70 games51% · 38 games
TechiesCr1t-
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
61% · 70 games36% · 96 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2