ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Mirana
Sneyking · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 22 games
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 699 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 929 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 412 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1212 bans
Clockwerk
500 picks · 386 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:28
Invictus Gaming 14%Tundra Esports 86%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:02.
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Invictus Gaming 14%Tundra Esports 86%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 86%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2