ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Miranasignature
Fly · 13 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 931 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1211 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
Shopify Rebellion 87%Invictus Gaming 13%
The model gave 87% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:47.
Game 2prediction correct35:31
Shopify Rebellion 87%Invictus Gaming 13%
The model gave 87% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 50:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 87%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2