ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Rubick
Poloson · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 11 games
Tinysignature
Boomy · 10 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 7 games
Mirana
AhFu · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 6 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 11 games
Tiny
Taiga · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 931 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1211 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:46
Team SMG 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaMidOne
Void Spiritbzm
LeshracMoon
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
RubickPoloson
SlarkYuragi
UndyingAhFu
VenomancerTaiga
Game 2prediction correct17:38
Team SMG 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMoon
Phantom LancerYuragi
MuertaMidOne
Tinybzm
WindrangerPoloson
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
EarthshakerAhFu
ClockwerkTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 66%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2