ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 13 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 931 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1211 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:29
Talon Esports 56%beastcoast 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:32.
Game 2prediction correct26:18
Talon Esports 56%beastcoast 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2