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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 11 games
27%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 10 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
forcemajor · 9 games
44%

No Sorry

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 19 games
47%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 698 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 931 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 410 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1212 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% No Sorry
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
cybercats 51%No Sorry 49%
The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAlberkaaa
58% · 75 games52% · 53 games
SvenDinozavrik
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
49% · 227 games52% · 164 games
Storm SpiritDodren
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDkFogas
51% · 384 games47% · 71 game
Centaur WarrunnerDominic
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterforcemajor
53% · 31 game44% · 540 games
RubickFezor
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
54% · 338 games43% · 227 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct25:8
cybercats 52%No Sorry 48%
The model gave 52% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 25:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDkFogas
53% · 242 games43% · 45 games
Phantom LancerDinozavrik
Phantom Lancer
Lifestealer
LifestealerAlberkaaa
48% · 51 game45% · 75 games
UnderlordDominic
Underlord
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
54% · 208 games51% · 186 games
Monkey KingDodren
Monkey King
Chen
ChenDukalis
60% · 97 games44% · 250 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageforcemajor
50% · 124 games48% · 166 games
Winter WyvernFezor
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 51%
Series resultcybercats 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2