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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 28 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
88%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
zai · 12 games
83%

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
BoBoKa · 14 games
36%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 696 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 410 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1210 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 34%
Hero pool strength62% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:34
Team Liquid 66%Team Aster 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
46% · 214 games51% · 159 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Batrider
Batriderzai
49% · 175 games47% · 139 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkermiCKe
55% · 97 games50% · 255 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
52% · 268 games48% · 258 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
56% · 107 games44% · 50 games
PugnaBoBoKa
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct35:10
Team Liquid 64%Team Aster 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
56% · 152 games48% · 51 game
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerzai
53% · 93 games48% · 84 games
AlchemistXxs
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
42% · 50 games60% · 145 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Io
IoBoxi
49% · 69 games43% · 61 game
TechiesBoBoKa
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
45% · 154 games51% · 177 games
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2