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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nemesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 15 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 15 games
73%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Kez
Kezsignature
Watson · 14 games
71%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 14 games
86%

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lelis · 15 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 289 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
338 picks · 140 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 152 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 463 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 438 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 200 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
270 picks · 247 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:0
Team Yandex 77%Team Nemesis 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 13:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
47% · 282 games52% · 239 games
Shadow FiendJaCkky
Shadow Fiend
Kez
KezWatson
45% · 301 game46% · 156 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
49% · 190 games58% · 188 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMalady
51% · 218 games53% · 547 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
48% · 318 games52% · 179 games
BaneNARMAN
Bane
Game 2prediction correct38:5
Team Yandex 77%Team Nemesis 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWatson
45% · 301 game52% · 239 games
Shadow FiendJaCkky
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
47% · 282 games46% · 156 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
49% · 190 games58% · 188 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMalady
51% · 218 games53% · 547 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
48% · 318 games52% · 179 games
BaneNARMAN
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 91%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2