Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ancient Tribe
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 17 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 13 games
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
987 picks · 692 bans
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 930 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 408 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1211 bans
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:41
Ancient Tribe 42%D2 Hustlers 58%
The model gave 58% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 39:20.
Game 2prediction correct36:42
Ancient Tribe 42%D2 Hustlers 58%
The model gave 58% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 1:18:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 58%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2