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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
89%
Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 8 games
75%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
987 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 408 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 410 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1211 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 34%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
LGD Gaming 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 45:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingshiro
44% · 92 games53% · 113 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
42% · 151 game58% · 264 games
PuckBob
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
52% · 318 games49% · 268 games
DoomTino-
Doom
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
50% · 359 games51% · 427 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
48% · 152 games
Game 2prediction correct36:27
LGD Gaming 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
55% · 105 games47% · 185 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
61% · 131 game45% · 446 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
54% · 295 games40% · 73 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
Chen
Cheny`
57% · 82 games44% · 236 games
Crystal MaidenShanks
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
52% · 327 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 65%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2