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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Antares · 33 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 19 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
RAMZES666 · 16 games
63%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 16 games
69%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
47%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 27 games
70%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 12 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
987 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 408 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 410 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1211 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:14
9Pandas 40%TSM 60%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
49% · 59 games47% · 131 game
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
53% · 244 games46% · 49 games
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Doom
DoomMieRo
50% · 132 games51% · 151 game
Void Spiritbryle-
Void Spirit
Techies
TechiesAntares
52% · 21 game53% · 92 games
DazzleAri
Dazzle
Phoenix
PhoenixRodjER
45% · 65 games56% · 98 games
Nyx AssassinWhitemon
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed40:11
9Pandas 42%TSM 58%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
50% · 493 games50% · 99 games
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRAMZES666
48% · 129 games53% · 352 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Alchemist
AlchemistMieRo
56% · 66 games42% · 179 games
Primal Beastkasane
Primal Beast
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
55% · 107 games43% · 237 games
EnchantressAri
Enchantress
Chen
ChenRodjER
57% · 98 games49% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 71%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2