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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 22 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
89%

IHC Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
ace12 · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
423 · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
986 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 408 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 410 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1211 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:15
Myth Avenue Gaming 49%IHC Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYoungGodLevi
53% · 84 games50% · 170 games
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Magnus
Magnusxsilearn
56% · 80 games43% · 204 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMeracle
48% · 314 games46% · 259 games
Rubickace12
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPlayHard
52% · 309 games51% · 154 games
UndyingSe
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 55%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1