Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 4 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 11 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 7 games
Treant Protector
Jubei · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
986 picks · 693 bans
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 931 bans
Disruptor
546 picks · 408 bans
Tusk
529 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1210 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:17
Sand King Gomez 64%The Cut 36%
The model gave 64% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkNeKo
Doomhigh_shaggy
HoodwinkN1NE
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
46% · 132 games
Snapfirebgod
55% · 27 games
IoJubei
Game 2prediction correct39:14
Sand King Gomez 58%The Cut 42%
The model gave 58% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerNeKo
Phantom AssassinScourge McDuck
Nyx AssassinN1NE
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
57% · 3 games
Techiesbgod
50% · 30 games
BaneJubei
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 72%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2