Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UALEIKUMNIHAO
Death Prophetsignature
hAze · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 7 games
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 7 games
Rubicksignature
b1kA · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 6 games
cybercats
Rubick
jesv · 14 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 13 games
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 10 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
Techies
jesv · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
991 picks · 692 bans
Tiny
641 picks · 464 bans
Nature's Prophet
585 picks · 934 bans
Disruptor
545 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 412 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1207 bans
Clockwerk
502 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 41%
Hero pool strength61% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
UALEIKUMNIHAO 64%cybercats 36%
The model gave 64% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by cybercats in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenPalantimos
AlchemistAlberkaaa
Death ProphetShergarat
BeastmasterDkFogas
Bounty HunterhAze
Keeper of the LightChira JUNIOR
Doomb1kA
DisruptorDukalis
RubickMary_y
Snapfireforcemajor
Game 2prediction correct41:14
UALEIKUMNIHAO 64%cybercats 36%
The model gave 64% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistPalantimos
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
WindrangerhAze
BloodseekerAlberkaaa
ViperShergarat
UnderlordDkFogas
JakiroMary_y
Rubickforcemajor
Treant Protectorb1kA
LichDukalis
Game 3prediction correct24:11
UALEIKUMNIHAO 65%cybercats 35%
The model gave 65% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerPalantimos
Naga SirenAlberkaaa
LeshrachAze
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
EnigmaShergarat
UnderlordDkFogas
ChenMary_y
Miranaforcemajor
Treant Protectorb1kA
EnchantressDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 73%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3