DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wits · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Grimstroke
Scofield · 5 games
Hoodwink
Scofield · 4 games
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 11 games
Jakiro
Accel · 8 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 6 games
Tiny
payk · 5 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
616 picks · 572 bans
Tiny
517 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 406 bans
Phoenix
453 picks · 515 bans
Hoodwink
448 picks · 221 bans
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1033 bans
Puck
386 picks · 894 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:12
South America Rejects 64%Estar Backs 36%
The model gave 64% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterFrank
Lone Druidpayk
SlarkWits
EnchantressYadomi
Death ProphetDarkMago
VenomancerElmisho
ClockwerkScofield
Game 2prediction correct30:12
South America Rejects 63%Estar Backs 37%
The model gave 63% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosWits
Lone Druidpayk
BristlebackFrank
TuskYadomi
Sand KingDarkMago
RingmasterElmisho
GrimstrokeScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 80%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2