Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Ancient Tribe
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 16 games
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 11 games
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
999 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
643 picks · 478 bans
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 942 bans
Disruptor
544 picks · 406 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 423 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1205 bans
Clockwerk
505 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
D2 Hustlers 65%Ancient Tribe 35%
The model gave 65% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 38:05.
Game 2prediction missed30:26
D2 Hustlers 65%Ancient Tribe 35%
The model gave 65% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 59:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 65%
Series resultAncient Tribe 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2