DreamLeague Season 19 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 2:3series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 26 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 15 games
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
zai · 12 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 35 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 23 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 22 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 20 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
996 picks · 692 bans
Tiny
643 picks · 478 bans
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 942 bans
Disruptor
542 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 423 bans
Snapfire
532 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1203 bans
Clockwerk
505 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total65% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:33
Team Liquid 57%Gaimin Gladiators 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 52:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beastzai
DoomAce
MuertamiCKe
PuckQuinn
TimbersawNisha
Slarkdyrachyo
Crystal MaidenBoxi
ChenSeleri
LichiNSaNiA
SnapfiretOfu
Game 2prediction correct21:9
Team Liquid 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenmiCKe
Terrorbladedyrachyo
NecrophosNisha
Dragon KnightAce
Underlordzai
SniperQuinn
CheniNSaNiA
MiranatOfu
RubickBoxi
UndyingSeleri
Game 3prediction missed36:35
Team Liquid 58%Gaimin Gladiators 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 57:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNisha
Muertadyrachyo
SlarkmiCKe
PuckQuinn
Rikizai
UnderlordAce
CheniNSaNiA
DisruptorSeleri
PhoenixBoxi
RubicktOfu
Game 4prediction correct33:4
Team Liquid 57%Gaimin Gladiators 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenmiCKe
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Storm SpiritNisha
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Underlordzai
Queen of PainQuinn
RubickBoxi
Dark WillowtOfu
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
DisruptorSeleri
Game 5prediction missed9:30
Team Liquid 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendNisha
DoomAce
BristlebackmiCKe
Slarkdyrachyo
Underlordzai
Templar AssassinQuinn
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Crystal MaidenSeleri
HoodwinkBoxi
Skywrath MagetOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 65%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5