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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:0
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Piggy Killerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Tusk
Tusk
Tz. · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
40%

Piggy Killer

Tiny
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 4 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Frisk · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 4 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Victoria · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
994 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
645 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 945 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
543 picks · 403 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
538 picks · 422 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
530 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1202 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
504 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 86%
Hero pool strength68% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:29
Big Brain 27%Piggy Killer 73%
The model gave 73% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Big Brain in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinManic
47% · 106 games51% · 323 games
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
43% · 58 games60% · 117 games
Slarkflyfly
Slark
Doom
DoomMolasses
47% · 216 games49% · 35 games
Legion CommanderSrf
Legion Commander
Tusk
Tuskmarblue
47% · 283 games55% · 367 games
MiranaFrisk
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressTz.
44% · 234 games54% · 55 games
Ogre MagiVictoria
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed30:16
Big Brain 28%Piggy Killer 72%
The model gave 72% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Big Brain in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinManic
50% · 109 games41% · 38 games
Phantom Assassinflyfly
Phantom Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordEcho
41% · 26 games49% · 86 games
RikiXm
Riki
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMolasses
47% · 66 games56% · 49 games
VenomancerSrf
Venomancer
Mirana
Miranamarblue
50% · 266 games56% · 68 games
ChenVictoria
Chen
Monkey King
Monkey KingTz.
50% · 150 games51% · 376 games
RubickFrisk
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 86%
Series resultBig Brain 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2