Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionHHorizonwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
Myth Avenue Gaming
Tusksignature
Hishge · 22 games
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
Rubicksignature
RR · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 12 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
997 picks · 693 bans
Tiny
648 picks · 478 bans
Nature's Prophet
594 picks · 946 bans
Disruptor
543 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 425 bans
Snapfire
530 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1203 bans
Clockwerk
503 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
Horizon 36%Myth Avenue Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 41:39.
Game 2prediction correct52:37
Horizon 36%Myth Avenue Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 45:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 64%
Series resultHorizon 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2