Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Brightwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 11 games
Doomsignature
Killa · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
Tusk
Undyne_ · 3 games
Chenoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
997 picks · 693 bans
Tiny
648 picks · 478 bans
Nature's Prophet
594 picks · 946 bans
Disruptor
543 picks · 402 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 425 bans
Snapfire
530 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1202 bans
Clockwerk
502 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:37
Team Disillusion 47%Team Bright 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenKilla
Leshracphoenix
Skywrath MageEren
Sand KingIrving
29% · 42 games
Crystal MaidenUndyne_
Game 2prediction missed15:33
Team Disillusion 51%Team Bright 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Bright in 19:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerKilla
BrewmasterIrving
MiranaEren
Void Spiritphoenix
49% · 127 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 58%
Series resultTeam Bright 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2