DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSwin 2:0series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ALIS VENTORUS
Hoodwink
waveformn · 5 games
Luna
paw · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Delight · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
paw · 2 games
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 39 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Pucksignature
Worick · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
616 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
512 picks · 406 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
451 picks · 506 bans
Hoodwink
444 picks · 218 bans
Warlock
405 picks · 251 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1034 bans
Puck
385 picks · 889 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:21
ALIS VENTORUS 26%Zero Tenacity 74%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinypaw
Sand KingWorick
Queen of PainPanda
DoomNefrit
TidehunterNorma
SlarkKami
HoodwinkDelight
DisruptorMoOz
Iowaveformn
TechiesdEsire
Game 2prediction missed39:26
ALIS VENTORUS 28%Zero Tenacity 72%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarPanda
Monkey KingKami
Tinypaw
TidehunterNefrit
Legion CommanderNorma
LinaWorick
HoodwinkDelight
VenomancerMoOz
Iowaveformn
TechiesdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 88%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2