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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Limits Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
FCR · 5 games
20%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Wij · 4 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%

No Limits Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Zxca · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
JP · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zxca · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
CHAAANNN · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 946 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
542 picks · 403 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
534 picks · 367 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 428 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1202 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:22
x5 Gaming 51%No Limits Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistFCR
45% · 83 games53% · 40 games
Dragon KnightAlone
Dragon Knight
Weaver
WeaverBenny
44% · 127 games56% · 199 games
MarciJP
Marci
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWij
47% · 296 games55% · 88 games
Batriderdrakesh1t
Batrider
52% · 115 games
TuskZxca
Tusk
57% · 64 games
DisruptorCHAAANNN
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed37:8
x5 Gaming 47%No Limits Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerBenny
41% · 55 games62% · 73 games
Monkey KingJP
Monkey King
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFCR
50% · 49 games54% · 98 games
BatriderAlone
Batrider
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWij
44% · 216 games58% · 19 games
Underlorddrakesh1t
Underlord
53% · 46 games
Crystal MaidenCHAAANNN
Crystal Maiden
51% · 84 games
TuskZxca
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 53%
Series resultx5 Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2