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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 0:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Mad Kingswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 20 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
79%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Vitaly · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 483 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 946 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 403 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 428 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
535 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1204 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
503 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Mad Kings
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ravens 29%Mad Kings 71%
The model gave 71% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 71%
Series resultMad Kings 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1