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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 34 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 23 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 23 games
87%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 21 game
76%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 19 games
74%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 28 games
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 26 games
85%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
89%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
88%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 483 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 946 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 403 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 428 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
535 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1204 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
503 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 73%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
Gaimin Gladiators 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgedyrachyo
55% · 62 games50% · 197 games
Monkey KingNisha
Monkey King
Puck
PuckQuinn
49% · 225 games37% · 23 games
Phantom LancermiCKe
Phantom Lancer
Doom
DoomAce
52% · 120 games50% · 149 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
Windranger
WindrangertOfu
40% · 30 games58% · 94 games
CheniNSaNiA
Chen
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
44% · 143 games53% · 117 games
Nyx Assassinzai
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct49:47
Gaimin Gladiators 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:16:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAce
52% · 49 games41% · 95 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
51% · 46 games53% · 25 games
Necrophoszai
Necrophos
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
50% · 45 gameslittle data
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
43% · 75 games49% · 54 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptortOfu
53% · 31 game62% · 72 games
CheniNSaNiA
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2