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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Daze · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Riddys · 4 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 3 games
67%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
hAze · 10 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 8 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 5 games
80%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
999 picks · 697 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 482 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
594 picks · 946 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 402 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 428 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
536 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1206 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 381 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:19
Natus Vincere Junior 39%UALEIKUMNIHAO 61%
The model gave 61% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirengotthejuice
55% · 142 gameslittle data
MuertaPalantimos
Muerta
Tiny
TinyRi4man
48% · 690 games51% · 379 games
BeastmasterShergarat
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
43% · 153 games55% · 167 games
Storm SpirithAze
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
51% · 389 games45% · 645 games
Rubickb1kA
Rubick
Techies
TechiesDaze
50% · 101 game53% · 284 games
UndyingMary_y
Undying
Game 2prediction correct10:19
Natus Vincere Junior 41%UALEIKUMNIHAO 59%
The model gave 59% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRi4man
57% · 202 games41% · 47 games
Troll WarlordPalantimos
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
56% · 327 games47% · 224 games
DoomShergarat
Doom
Slark
Slarkgotthejuice
55% · 120 games53% · 220 games
PuckhAze
Puck
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
51% · 352 games45% · 443 games
Rubickb1kA
Rubick
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterDaze
51% · 22 games40% · 89 games
JakiroMary_y
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct9:36
Natus Vincere Junior 38%UALEIKUMNIHAO 62%
The model gave 62% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
52% · 64 games46% · 69 games
SpectrePalantimos
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierRi4man
53% · 326 games48% · 362 games
Death ProphethAze
Death Prophet
Magnus
Magnuspma
44% · 66 games55% · 243 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
50% · 35 games55% · 309 games
Treant Protectorb1kA
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickDaze
48% · 581 game47% · 89 games
JakiroMary_y
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 70%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3