Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Tusk
Tz. · 11 games
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 7 games
Mirana
marblue · 7 games
Snapfire
Molasses · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
Tusk
Undyne_ · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 2 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1000 picks · 697 bans
Tiny
649 picks · 482 bans
Nature's Prophet
595 picks · 945 bans
Disruptor
540 picks · 402 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 428 bans
Snapfire
534 picks · 367 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1206 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 69%
Hero pool strength56% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:14
Big Brain 38%Team Bright 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Big Brain in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinManic
Beastmasterphoenix
PuckEcho
Legion CommanderIrving
Bounty HunterMolasses
ClockwerkUndyne_
Snapfiremarblue
Monkey KingTz.
Game 2prediction missed30:22
Big Brain 37%Team Bright 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Big Brain in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaManic
Void Spiritphoenix
Ember SpiritEcho
Primal BeastIrving
DoomMolasses
ChenUndyne_
Miranamarblue
Monkey KingTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 71%
Series resultBig Brain 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2