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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
孤独摇滚loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 8 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Drink · 7 games
86%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
17%

孤独摇滚

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
strawberry · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Dstones · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
649 picks · 482 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
595 picks · 945 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 400 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 427 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
533 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1202 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
504 picks · 381 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% iG Vitality
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% 孤独摇滚
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:12
iG Vitality 48%孤独摇滚 52%
The model gave 52% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 26:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdolem
63% · 14 games46% · 163 games
BatriderDstones
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey Kingukiyo
58% · 51 game43% · 38 games
Night Stalkerstrawberry
Night Stalker
Pangolier
PangolierAsh
52% · 99 games
Lion
LionDrink
75% · 4 games
Abaddon
AbaddonSj
49% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct12:30
iG Vitality 46%孤独摇滚 54%
The model gave 54% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdolem
42% · 36 games52% · 91 game
Weaverstrawberry
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey Kingukiyo
54% · 93 games52% · 373 games
Ember SpiritDstones
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierAsh
55% · 159 games
Snapfire
SnapfireDrink
40% · 138 games
Dazzle
DazzleSj
49% · 38 games
Game 3prediction missed31:22
iG Vitality 48%孤独摇滚 52%
The model gave 52% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 47:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAsh
65% · 39 games44% · 328 games
Ember SpiritDstones
Ember Spirit
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightukiyo
43% · 45 gameslittle data
Muertastrawberry
Muerta
Pangolier
Pangolierdolem
53% · 140 games
Monkey King
Monkey KingDrink
59% · 72 games
Jakiro
JakiroSj
61% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favorite孤独摇滚 · 54%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3