Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 4 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Lucky Bird
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
Snapfire
Yadomi · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
empyrean5 · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1000 picks · 697 bans
Tiny
650 picks · 482 bans
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 946 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 427 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 399 bans
Snapfire
534 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1200 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 43%
Hero pool strength65% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:59
Sand King Gomez 57%Lucky Bird 43%
The model gave 57% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNeKo
BloodseekerRises
Skywrath MageN1NE
MeepoBlackSoul
54% · 35 games
BatriderSatoshi-
47% · 30 games
Disruptorempyrean5
Game 2prediction missed26:59
Sand King Gomez 54%Lucky Bird 46%
The model gave 54% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerNeKo
SlarkRises
TechiesN1NE
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
55% · 25 games
LeshracSatoshi-
62% · 29 games
Crystal Maidenempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 62%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2