Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1002 picks · 696 bans
Tiny
648 picks · 481 bans
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 946 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 430 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 367 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1199 bans
Clockwerk
503 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:28
PuckChamp 36%D2 Hustlers 64%
The model gave 64% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 56:51.
Game 2prediction correct56:22
PuckChamp 36%D2 Hustlers 64%
The model gave 64% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 1:00:59.
Game 3prediction correct31:23
PuckChamp 36%D2 Hustlers 64%
The model gave 64% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 56:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 64%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3