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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 43 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 37 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 31 game
65%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 27 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 26 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
52%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 30 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 576 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 405 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 400 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
451 picks · 503 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
442 picks · 217 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 888 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total69% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Team Yandex 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 25:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverWatson
42% · 95 games50% · 130 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChira JUNIOR
47% · 20 games69% · 26 games
Lone DruidNiku
Lone Druid
Underlord
UnderlordDM
48% · 151 game45% · 142 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
64% · 68 games50% · 257 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
43% · 272 games55% · 51 game
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed14:32
Team Yandex 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidWatson
66% · 14 games48% · 183 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordDM
51% · 221 game55% · 126 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
50% · 434 games43% · 63 games
Night StalkerNiku
Night Stalker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
57% · 81 game45% · 285 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
47% · 174 games48% · 267 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed19:23
Team Yandex 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
50% · 161 game64% · 37 games
Broodmothergotthejuice
Broodmother
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
46% · 62 games52% · 121 game
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDM
50% · 72 games51% · 307 games
Slardarpma
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
47% · 279 games52% · 64 games
VenomancerRiddys
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
44% · 113 games50% · 158 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 69%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3