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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 27 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 17 games
41%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 12 games
25%

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
Immersion · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
RESPECT · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 9 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 8 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 697 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
650 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 947 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 430 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
539 picks · 397 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
533 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1198 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 381 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total72% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
IVY 36%Into The Breach 64%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingxannii
51% · 250 games50% · 112 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
41% · 76 games53% · 132 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Enchantress
Enchantressjmn-
51% · 301 game46% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionXibbe
Ancient Apparition
Windranger
WindrangerQupe
52% · 25 games46% · 200 games
ClockwerkImmersion
Clockwerk
59% · 182 games
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct25:30
IVY 36%Into The Breach 64%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:01:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerxannii
49% · 24 games53% · 165 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Sniper
SniperStojkov
46% · 92 games60% · 82 games
SlarkOtaker
Slark
Enchantress
Enchantressjmn-
43% · 243 games57% · 172 games
DoomImmersion
Doom
Snapfire
SnapfireQupe
42% · 337 games59% · 16 games
Legion CommanderXibbe
Legion Commander
54% · 261 game
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 72%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2