Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Ancient Tribe
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
Snapfire
MikSa` · 11 games
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
651 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 949 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 431 bans
Disruptor
538 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1200 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:27
Alliance 69%Ancient Tribe 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 57:24.
Game 2prediction missed14:39
Alliance 69%Ancient Tribe 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 1:00:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 69%
Series resultAncient Tribe 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2