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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
x5 Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dreamers

No games played over 6 months.

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantress
FCR · 5 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Wij · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FCR · 3 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1006 picks · 700 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 481 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 948 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 434 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
536 picks · 397 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
534 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1201 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 379 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:21
Dreamers 49%x5 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 24:39.
Game 2prediction correct37:45
Dreamers 49%x5 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 57:45.
Game 3prediction correct42:10
Dreamers 49%x5 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 30:49.
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 51%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3