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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 49 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 42 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 33 games
39%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 26 games
58%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 29 games
52%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 28 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 25 games
28%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 25 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 576 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 405 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
448 picks · 500 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
436 picks · 217 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1034 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 884 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:37
Rune Eaters 28%Nigma Galaxy 72%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierEthereal
48% · 382 games48% · 193 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Doom
Doomyowaai
48% · 163 games51% · 326 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Enigma
EnigmaAnkou
48% · 96 games49% · 221 game
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKidaro
55% · 453 games48% · 208 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Rubick
Rubickani-san
50% · 200 games54% · 346 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Rune Eaters 27%Nigma Galaxy 73%
The model gave 73% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
48% · 147 games56% · 262 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
44% · 168 games56% · 220 games
Monkey Kingrincyq
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierAnkou
37% · 229 games52% · 56 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkani-san
48% · 238 games59% · 93 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKidaro
63% · 4 games56% · 155 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 87%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2