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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 11 games
64%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 10 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 26 games
85%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 19 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
89%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
zai · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 699 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 949 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 433 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
534 picks · 396 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
534 picks · 366 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1201 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 378 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 72%
Hero pool strength62% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 7
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
OG 27%Team Liquid 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYuragi
43% · 73 games56% · 149 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
49% · 409 games53% · 171 game
BatriderNisha
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
50% · 196 games56% · 166 games
Enigmazai
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixChuvash
50% · 141 game51% · 255 games
UndyingBoxi
Undying
Bane
BaneTaiga
43% · 105 games48% · 183 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct34:52
OG 28%Team Liquid 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenbzm
46% · 7 games44% · 255 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
48% · 42 games55% · 243 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Pudge
PudgeYuragi
52% · 114 games53% · 119 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickChuvash
43% · 552 games50% · 183 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTaiga
55% · 122 games54% · 37 games
AlchemistBoxi
Alchemist
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2