?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 10 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 10 games
70%
Silencer
Silencer
ShakaLord · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Demon · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1007 picks · 698 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 951 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
534 picks · 365 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 396 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1202 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
503 picks · 378 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength64% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:25
Ravens 41%Balrogs 59%
The model gave 59% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTaO
56% · 203 games53% · 122 games
TerrorbladeDM
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBenjaz
49% · 62 games49% · 278 games
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Pangolier
Disruptor
Disruptord1smar
50% · 261 game47% · 206 games
EnchantressShakaLord
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingCara
50% · 323 games46% · 243 games
ClockwerkDemon
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct20:43
Ravens 40%Balrogs 60%
The model gave 60% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierTaO
48% · 317 games59% · 224 games
Monkey KingDM
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBenjaz
50% · 172 games46% · 360 games
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
Disruptord1smar
48% · 213 games41% · 228 games
HoodwinkDemon
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCara
58% · 234 games51% · 124 games
JakiroShakaLord
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 65%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2