DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 37 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 27 games
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 22 games
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1002 picks · 697 bans
Tiny
651 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 953 bans
Tusk
547 picks · 432 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
524 picks · 393 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1196 bans
Clockwerk
502 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
beastcoast 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 22:18.
Game 2prediction correct36:21
beastcoast 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2