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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
孤独摇滚loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Supernova

Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 2 games
50%

孤独摇滚

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Dstones · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 696 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
599 picks · 952 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
535 picks · 362 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
526 picks · 391 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1194 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
503 picks · 376 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% 孤独摇滚
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:11
Supernova 47%孤独摇滚 53%
The model gave 53% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Supernova in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubick
Rubicksheep
41% · 161 game61% · 114 games
PuckDstones
Puck
57% · 47 games
Dawnbreakerstrawberry
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction missed32:19
Supernova 49%孤独摇滚 51%
The model gave 51% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Supernova in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubick
Rubicksheep
50% · 135 games57% · 104 games
LeshracDstones
Leshrac
43% · 31 game
Legion Commanderstrawberry
Legion Commander
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 53%
Series resultSupernova 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2