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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Oversightloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Oversight

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
N1NE · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
N1NE · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 4 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
layme · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
antoha · 3 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
N1NE · 3 games
33%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
Mark · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
599 picks · 950 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
533 picks · 362 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
526 picks · 389 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1193 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
503 picks · 376 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:32
The Oversight 42%CDUB Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciSkyward
48% · 293 games45% · 48 games
Phantom AssassinDouble King
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyAtoufix
53% · 601 game49% · 185 games
DoomislA
Doom
57% · 292 games
PangolierMark
Pangolier
48% · 298 games
SnapfireDuster
Snapfire
49% · 71 game
JakiroSanctified
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct25:31
The Oversight 42%CDUB Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkyward
50% · 227 games61% · 15 games
Anti-MageDouble King
Anti-Mage
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAtoufix
47% · 161 game54% · 67 games
DoomislA
Doom
42% · 74 games
Dragon KnightMark
Dragon Knight
51% · 128 games
SnapfireDuster
Snapfire
53% · 104 games
MiranaSanctified
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 63%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2