Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sand King Gomezwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Beastmastersignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 4 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 3 games
Pudgeoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
599 picks · 952 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 432 bans
Snapfire
534 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
527 picks · 389 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1192 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:40
TiltedBoys 55%Sand King Gomez 45%
The model gave 55% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomEzekiel
MorphlingNeKo
41% · 23 games
Skywrath MageN1NE
Game 2prediction missed18:27
TiltedBoys 51%Sand King Gomez 49%
The model gave 51% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerEzekiel
TerrorbladeNeKo
59% · 30 games
Skywrath MageN1NE
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 54%
Series resultSand King Gomez 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2