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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 43 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 37 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 34 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 25 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 24 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Kataomi · 23 games
35%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 33 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 576 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 405 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
446 picks · 499 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
435 picks · 215 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1034 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 882 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:19
BETBOOM TEAM 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
47% · 46 games67% · 10 games
Lone DruidSkiter
Lone Druid
Undying
UndyingMieRo
52% · 130 games49% · 245 games
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
52% · 397 games48% · 140 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Lion
LionSave-
46% · 109 games52% · 158 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Bane
BaneKataomi
54% · 150 games46% · 279 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed37:17
BETBOOM TEAM 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
51% · 192 games64% · 28 games
Lone DruidSkiter
Lone Druid
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
55% · 52 games47% · 159 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMieRo
50% · 117 games45% · 213 games
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Queen of Pain
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKataomi
56% · 36 games48% · 156 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
49% · 303 games47% · 144 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed38:9
BETBOOM TEAM 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKiritych
46% · 233 games56% · 8 games
Lone DruidSkiter
Lone Druid
Pangolier
PangoliergpK~
47% · 196 games58% · 143 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMieRo
52% · 83 games47% · 173 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Lion
LionSave-
51% · 90 games49% · 201 game
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerKataomi
46% · 58 games53% · 135 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3