Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Old Gloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Tusk
yamich · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Resolut1on · 8 games
Drow Rangersignature
Crystallis · 7 games
Mirana
Puppey · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 7 games
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 18 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 17 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Leshracoften banned
young G · 14 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Silencer
Hduo · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1002 picks · 693 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 479 bans
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 952 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
534 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
527 picks · 386 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1191 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:12
Team Secret 65%Old G 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaCrystallis
DoomNo[o]ne
Death ProphetArmel
MorphlingTopson
Primal BeastBOOM
EarthshakerCeb
Miranayamich
PhoenixALWAYSWANNAFLY
JakiroPuppey
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Team Secret 64%Old G 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Legion CommanderCeb
PangolierArmel
OracleTopson
Death ProphetBOOM
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Rubickyamich
PhoenixALWAYSWANNAFLY
JakiroPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 77%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2