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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 26 games
85%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 19 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
89%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
zai · 13 games
77%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 27 games
70%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 690 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
651 picks · 481 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 953 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
533 picks · 361 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
527 picks · 384 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1190 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
503 picks · 378 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total86% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
Team Liquid 71%TSM 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
48% · 71 game53% · 311 games
Doomkasane
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
42% · 233 games53% · 91 game
Night StalkerTimado
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
48% · 218 games52% · 252 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
47% · 184 games54% · 107 games
PugnaAri
Pugna
Undying
UndyingBoxi
49% · 139 games56% · 84 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Game 2prediction correct44:33
Team Liquid 73%TSM 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
57% · 234 games54% · 121 game
Naga SirenTimado
Naga Siren
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerNisha
51% · 34 games49% · 283 games
Doomkasane
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
49% · 340 games48% · 386 games
Ember Spiritbryle-
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
47% · 353 games50% · 142 games
Skywrath MageAri
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
46% · 286 games49% · 315 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 86%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2