Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Mirana
Qupe · 26 games
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 16 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 16 games
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 690 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
602 picks · 953 bans
Tusk
555 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
534 picks · 361 bans
Disruptor
527 picks · 382 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1190 bans
Clockwerk
502 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:27
Alliance 81%IVY 19%
The model gave 81% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 57:25.
Game 2prediction correct36:26
Alliance 81%IVY 19%
The model gave 81% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 44:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 81%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2