Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionHHorizonwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTTeam Toughloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 7 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Rikioften banned
seimei · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1002 picks · 687 bans
Tiny
653 picks · 479 bans
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 955 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
530 picks · 360 bans
Disruptor
522 picks · 382 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1186 bans
Clockwerk
502 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Horizon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Tough
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:16
Horizon 41%Team Tough 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 33:51.
Game 2prediction correct15:30
Horizon 41%Team Tough 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 34:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tough · 59%
Series resultHorizon 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2