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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 25 games
72%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 9 games
67%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
bzm · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 688 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 481 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
599 picks · 959 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
552 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
530 picks · 359 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
521 picks · 377 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1185 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 377 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:30
TSM 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetkasane
49% · 226 games41% · 60 games
Wraith KingYuragi
Wraith King
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
50% · 155 games48% · 464 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbryle-
56% · 191 game56% · 33 games
VenomancerDM
Venomancer
Rubick
RubickAri
48% · 394 games48% · 315 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
47% · 170 games55% · 264 games
Monkey KingTaiga
Monkey King
Game 2prediction missed42:9
TSM 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by TSM in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTimado
50% · 117 games45% · 282 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
45% · 359 games54% · 62 games
VenomancerDM
Venomancer
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
56% · 299 games49% · 537 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickAri
47% · 455 games48% · 404 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
51% · 373 games56% · 318 games
Monkey KingTaiga
Monkey King
Game 3prediction missed17:37
TSM 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by OG in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
52% · 269 games46% · 154 games
LycanDM
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbryle-
55% · 282 games52% · 135 games
SlarkYuragi
Slark
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
50% · 450 games49% · 665 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
54% · 459 games45% · 427 games
SnapfireTaiga
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAri
50% · 267 games48% · 346 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3