?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 33 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 22 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 21 game
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 17 games
47%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 35 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 27 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 20 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 18 games
72%
Riki
Rikisignature
Saksa · 18 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 688 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
601 picks · 959 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 360 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
519 picks · 376 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1184 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 375 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingdyrachyo
53% · 152 games38% · 78 games
Phantom AssassinSkiter
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
54% · 308 games57% · 61 game
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
49% · 295 games47% · 553 games
RubickAramis
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
48% · 288 games54% · 99 games
RikiNine
Riki
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HuntertOfu
61% · 20 games45% · 272 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
52% · 77 games58% · 79 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Doom
DoomAce
51% · 350 games50% · 228 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
45% · 431 game50% · 325 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HuntertOfu
58% · 24 games46% · 215 games
EnchantressAramis
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
48% · 294 games50% · 329 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 62%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2