DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 29 games
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 26 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 19 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
zai · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1000 picks · 686 bans
Tiny
651 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
602 picks · 957 bans
Tusk
553 picks · 430 bans
Snapfire
528 picks · 359 bans
Disruptor
518 picks · 375 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1185 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 72%
Hero pool strength64% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:47
beastcoast 23%Team Liquid 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 58:27.
Game 2prediction correct56:27
beastcoast 23%Team Liquid 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2