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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 24 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 21 game
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 18 games
78%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 17 games
76%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 14 games
93%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 23 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 685 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 958 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 430 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 358 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
517 picks · 375 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1181 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 371 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:33
Evil Geniuses 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPakazs
44% · 61 game49% · 164 games
MorphlingArteezy
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
55% · 156 games57% · 210 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
51% · 174 games49% · 153 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Lion
LionMatthew
40% · 30 games39% · 57 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
55% · 163 games
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Evil Geniuses 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
52% · 179 games47% · 142 games
TerrorbladeArteezy
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomWisper
48% · 207 games54% · 107 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChris Luck
52% · 153 games53% · 182 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroPanda
41% · 90 games49% · 283 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Riki
RikiMatthew
54% · 85 games
Game 3prediction missed25:33
Evil Geniuses 58%Shopify Rebellion 42%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidPakazs
36% · 17 games47% · 70 games
AbaddonArteezy
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWisper
51% · 141 game46% · 111 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
55% · 114 games52% · 156 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroPanda
43% · 58 games52% · 34 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Riki
RikiMatthew
60% · 41 game
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 61%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3